SPC Dec 21, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A more active southern-stream pattern is expected next week with
several lower latitude troughs crossing the southern tier, along
with some northward increase in low-level moisture across parts of
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. On Tuesday/Day
4, one such shortwave trough should influence increasing
thunderstorm potential across south-central to east/southeast Texas.
Some severe risk could materialize Tuesday, but it appears that
overall buoyancy will be weak with the severe potential currently
expected to be relatively marginal and isolated in nature.

An additional focus for increasing deep convective potential will be
into the Thursday/Day 6, Friday/Day 7, and Saturday/Day 8 time
frame. This will be as a secondary upper trough emerges from the
Southwest deserts and moves toward the Deep South. This could lead
to a severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the
ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. While some severe storms will
be possible, perhaps especially Thursday/Day 6, there is lingering
risk magnitude uncertainty related to moisture/destabilization given
the potential influences of the preceding shortwave trough and cold
front. Forecast uncertainties at this time frame precludes any 15%
outlook areas.

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