Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7 Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South. This could lead to at least a low-end multi-day severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 5 could ultimately warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across east/southeast Texas, especially if the more southern and more severe-favorable ECMWF model runs become more apparent.