SPC Dec 22, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream
pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general
northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast.

After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas
Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7
Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge
from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South.
This could lead to at least a low-end multi-day severe risk in a
corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower
Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 5 could ultimately
warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across
east/southeast Texas, especially if the more southern and more
severe-favorable ECMWF model runs become more apparent.

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