SPC Dec 23, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over AZ
moving east and a northern stream trough over the Pacific Northwest.
The northern mid-level trough will latitudinally expand southward
into the central Rockies/south-central High Plains as a ridge
amplifies over the Interior West in its wake.  As this occurs, a
partial phasing of mid-level trough over the Desert Southwest will
occur as it moves into the southern High Plains.  Farther west, a
powerful upper trough will reach the WA/OR/northern CA coasts late
tonight.  In the low levels, surface high pressure will influence
conditions over much of the Lower 48 states.  Weak/ill-defined lower
pressure over central TX will facilitate southerly flow from the TX
coastal plain northward into the Red River Valley.  

Weak 850-mb warm-air advection will likely persist through the
period across north TX into OK while a modest increase in moisture
eventually results in weak elevated instability.  Isolated to widely
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible tonight over
eastern OK and perhaps as far south as north TX.

..Smith/Goss.. 12/23/2024

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