SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail and marginally severe gusts, will propagate across central into southeast Texas tonight. ...01z Update... Southern-stream short-wave trough will dig toward the lower Sabine River Valley late tonight. This feature will ensure at least a modest LLJ across the upper TX Coast into southern AR, ahead of a surface front that is expected to advance slowly across east TX. While low-level lapse rates are not particularly noteworthy across the warm sector, a corridor of 1000+ MLCAPE does extend into east TX ahead of the front. In the absence of appreciable inhibition, scattered-numerous showers-thunderstorms have evolved along/ahead of the frontal zone from west of Killeen into the Arklatex. This convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage as large-scale forcing overspreads this more buoyant air mass, where surface temperatures remain in the upper 60s-mid 70s. Current thinking is frontal convection will remain active, and pronounced, as the boundary shifts east and south toward the upper TX Coast. Deep-layer shear profiles favor sustained, multi-faceted updrafts capable of generating hail and gusty winds. ..Darrow.. 12/25/2024