SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today (Christmas). ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level disturbance over the northwest Gulf Coast while another upstream and more potent shortwave trough is located over UT/AZ. The Gulf Coast disturbance will weaken during the day as it moves east across the central Gulf Coast. Limited low-level mass response is forecast across southern LA due in part to relatively cool/stable conditions via a slow-to-erode surface ridge initially located over the central Gulf Coast. The maritime boundary over the northern Gulf is only expected to reach the near-shore waters. The airmass north of the maritime front was sampled by the 12 UTC Lake Charles observed sounding (near zero surface-based CAPE), and this expected lack of appreciable airmass modification/destabilization during the day will limit storm intensity. The ongoing convective band over southwest LA this morning will likely continue east through midday and reach south-central LA, with a few elevated thunderstorms moving inland from the Gulf. Later this afternoon, a few strong storms may approach the southeastern-most portions of LA, but the primary concern should remain offshore. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/25/2024