SPC MD 2278

MD 2278 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 712… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

Valid 250249Z - 250415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern
portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete
supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal
confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to
sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular
to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable
buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will
support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The
primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally
up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be
ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues
overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough,
storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the
hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though
increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some
extent.

..Weinman.. 12/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730
            28939763 29029791 29219800 

Read more