SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST AND EAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Plains eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a relatively compact but potent mid-level shortwave trough over west/northwest TX, and this feature will move east to the Ark-La-Tex by late evening before reaching western TN/northern MS by early Friday morning. In the low levels, a weak surface low will consolidate over northeast TX by late afternoon/early evening before moving into northern AR late overnight. A warm frontal zone will advance northward across much of east TX and western LA with lower 60s dewpoints near the I-20 corridor and mid 60s over the coastal plain (locally mid-upper 60s in upper coast of TX). Considerable cloud cover will likely limit the overall magnitude of destabilization today. In relative agreement with previous forecast thinking, convective development should begin mid-late morning over north TX and subsequently southward along the I-35 corridor. Weak capping will erode such as scattered to numerous storms will likely develop during afternoon near the low/frontal zone and in the warm sector near and west of the Sabine River. Forecast soundings show enlarged hodographs with sufficient buoyancy for rotating storms capable of all hazards, primarily this afternoon into the early evening. The aforementioned expanding thunderstorm coverage and linear evolution will lessen the hail risk towards evening. Concurrently, this should favor more of a scattered damaging wind/isolated risk for a tornado into the evening, gradually lowering into the overnight as buoyancy lessens. ..Smith/Grams.. 12/26/2024