SPC MD 2281

MD 2281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 2281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0918 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261518Z - 261715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for marginally severe hail
(0.5 to 1.25 inch diameter) in the near-term (next couple of hours).
A severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected, but may
become possible toward early afternoon for portions of the MCD area.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are occurring this morning in a
low-level warm advection regime ahead of an approaching upper
shortwave trough. The morning FWD RAOB indicated steep midlevel
lapse rates but strong inhibition through may layers in the
thermodynamic profile. However, latest SPC Mesoanalysis data and RAP
forecast soundings indicate midlevel inhibition is likely decreasing
with time as midlevel temperatures continue to cool and large-scale
ascent increases with the approaching of the upper trough. Some
brief increase in convective cores has also been noted in 7km CAPPI,
along with small increases in MRMS MESH. 

Favorable vertical shear, with elongated/straight hodographs above 2
km will support some continued organization of elevated storms into
midday. This activity may briefly be capable of producing marginally
severe hail (0.5 to 1.25 inch diameter) the next couple of hours.
While this initial convection may not require a watch in the short
term. Severe potential may increase by early afternoon across parts
of the MCD area and watch issuance may be needed later (and will be
discussed in forthcoming MCDs).

..Leitman/Thompson.. 12/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31899854 32649828 33039770 33419710 33539659 33559605
            33429578 33119571 32639568 32139580 31749611 31349671
            30999756 31029803 31159835 31719857 31899854 

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