SPC Dec 27, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts,
hail and a few tornadoes, will move eastward across far southeast
Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas this evening.

...Southeast Texas/Louisiana/Southern Arkansas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level trough moving
across east-central Texas. At the surface, a low is in northeast
Texas with a cold front moving eastward through east and southeast
Texas. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing ahead of the
front from far southeast Texas into far western Louisiana. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints range from the mid 50s F in southern
Arkansas to the upper 60s F in southwest Louisiana. Along the
western edge of the moist corridor, the RAP has low-level lapse
rates of 5 to 6 C/km, with MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range,
except in the Houston/Galveston area where MLCAPE is near 1500 J/kg.
In spite of the relatively poor thermodynamic environment, strong
deep-layer shear is present across much of the moist sector. The
Fort Polk WSR-88D VWP appears to be sampling the strongest
deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knots. The strong
deep-layer shear will continue to support supercell development with
cells that remain semi-discrete ahead of the front. Supercells and
organized multicell line segments will have the potential to produce
severe wind gusts and hail. In addition, a narrow 40 to 50 knot
low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP from far southeast Texas to
northwest Louisiana. Low-level shear, associated with this feature,
should be strong enough to maintain a tornado threat for several
more hours this evening. The tornado threat will be the greatest
with supercells and quasi-linear convective systems.

..Broyles.. 12/27/2024

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