SPC Dec 27, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN
FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today
across parts of the central Gulf Coast States.

...Central Gulf Coast Region...
A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided
occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast
LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region.  Low-level winds are
slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of
supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal
through mid-afternoon.  

Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the
same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a
re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. 
The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints
restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland.  Widespread
clouds will also limit destabilization.  Locally gusty winds or a
brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening
activity, but the overall threat appears marginal.

..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024

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