SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...OH Valley tonight... An 80-100 knot mid-level jet max will move quickly eastward across the central Plains today, and into the mid MS Valley tonight. Strong cyclogenesis will occur in advance of this system over MO/IL, with the primary baroclinic zone sweeping across AR into KY/TN. Strengthening southerly low-level winds in the warm sector of the deepening low will result in broad low-level warm/moist advection, and perhaps just enough CAPE for a few thunderstorms late tonight across the lower and middle OH Valley. Forecast soundings show impressive low-level shear profiles, but thermodynamics are quite weak with surface-based convection unlikely. Thus the severe threat is low. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/30/2024