SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail, and a brief tornado are possible today from the central Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...KY to the Mid Atlantic Region... A potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough will move from the upper OH Valley into NY/PA today, with an associated 80-100 knot mid-level speed max nosing across the Carolinas. Strong large-scale forcing and low-level warm advection is resulting in sufficient lift for the development of multiple lines/clusters of low-topped convection (some with lightning) across parts of OH/KY/TN/WV. This activity will move quickly eastward through the day across the central Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic region this afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show cold mid-level temperatures, resulting in steep lapse rates aloft. This will continue to support a threat of thunderstorms through tonight. Low-level moisture is quite limited, and forecast CAPE values are below 500 J/kg. Nevertheless, low and mid-level wind fields are very strong, which could easily mix down within any more-organized convection. Low-level shear is also strong enough to support updraft rotation (as already noted in a few cells this morning in KY) which could pose a risk of a brief tornado or occasional hail through the period. ..Hart.. 12/31/2024