SPC Jan 3, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Thu Jan 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic lightning flashes may occur this afternoon and evening over
the coastal Pacific Northwest into interior northern California.
Severe weather is not expected.

...Pacific Northwest...

Upper ridge will shift east into the Rockies later this afternoon as
a strong trough advances inland along the Pacific northwest. Latest
guidance suggests 120-150m, 12hr height falls will overspread this
region, coincident with highly diffluent flow aloft. Very cold
mid-level temperatures, and cooling/steepening lapse rates favor an
increasingly buoyant profile by afternoon within the post-frontal
environment. Scattered convection should develop within this
environment, and the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels
necessary for lightning discharge, hence the continuation of thunder
probabilities.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/03/2025

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