SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Discussion... While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the Great Basin vicinity. This feature is forecast to strengthen with time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through latter stages of the period. As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second half of the period. By early Sunday morning, this low should be crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of low-level warm advection east of the developing low. While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE. Showers are forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the advancing system. Greatest potential for some embedded lightning within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after midnight. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025