SPC Jan 3, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across
parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks.
No severe weather is expected.

...Discussion...
While a deep upper low will remain over eastern Canada and New
England Saturday, the main feature aloft associated with the primary
convective potential will be a short-wave trough initially over the
Great Basin vicinity.  This feature is forecast to strengthen with
time as it shifts east-southeastward, emerging into the
central/southern Plains and evolving into a closed low through
latter stages of the period.

As this mid/upper trough deepens, a surface low will shift out of
the southern Rockies and into the southern Plains through the second
half of the period.  By early Sunday morning, this low should be
crossing western Oklahoma, with a trailing cold front extending
west-southwestward across western Texas and a broadening zone of
low-level warm advection east of the developing low.

While the low-level airmass across the southern Plains and eastward
to the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley should remain stable
through the period, above-surface theta-e advection may be
sufficient to permit development of weak elevated CAPE.  Showers are
forecast to increase with time in this zone of warm advection, and
lightning potential will increase gradually through the second half
of the period, as quasigeostropic ascent strengthens ahead of the
advancing system.  Greatest potential for some embedded lightning
within the broader area of weak convection will extend from eastern
Kansas/northeastern Oklahoma eastward across the Ozarks, after
midnight.  No severe weather is expected.

..Goss.. 01/03/2025

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