SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward -- roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and then across the Ozarks region overnight. At the surface, a low initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by 06/12Z (Monday morning). A trailing cold front should reside just west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by the end of the period. Widespread convection is expected near and ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected. ...East Texas eastward to Mississippi... Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley. A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the evolving convective event. As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas. Though limited instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts. Hail should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to appear likely. While risk may become maximized from northern and central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in the current outlook level at this time. The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual decline in overall severe potential overnight. Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible overnight. ..Goss.. 01/03/2025