SPC Jan 3, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening
from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid Mississippi
Valley. Severe gusts and a few tornadoes are expected to be the
primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A gradually deepening upper low, progged to reside initially in the
OK/TX Panhandle area, is expected to move steadily eastward --
roughly along the Oklahoma/Kansas border -- through the day, and
then across the Ozarks region overnight.  At the surface, a low
initially over the central Oklahoma vicinity is likewise forecast to
advance steadily eastward, reaching the Tennessee Valley area by
06/12Z (Monday morning).  A trailing cold front should reside just
west of the Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and an eastern
Tennessee to eastern Alabama to north-central Gulf of Mexico line by
the end of the period.  Widespread convection is expected near and
ahead of the front, with a diurnal maximum expected.

...East Texas eastward to Mississippi...
Continued southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing surface
low is expected to gradually displace the cool/stable boundary
layer, to yield a weakly/slowly destabilizing warm sector through
late morning/afternoon, from east Texas to the Lower Mississippi
Valley.  A sharpening west-to-east warm front -- pushing northward
across southern Arkansas and eventually into the Tennessee Valley
area -- will provide a relatively abrupt northern boundary to the
evolving convective event.

As the cold front advances and the warm sector modestly
destabilizes, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and
perhaps just ahead of -- the cold front around midday, from western
Arkansas across the Arklatex region into East Texas.  Though limited
instability should temper updraft intensity to a degree, very strong
shear (flow substantially veering and increasing in magnitude with
height) will support evolution of vigorous/rotating updrafts.  Hail
should remain a more minor concern, but as a semi-continuous line of
storms evolves, including embedded and potentially a few leading
supercells, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes continue to
appear likely.  While risk may become maximized from northern and
central Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to southwestern
Mississippi mid to late afternoon, will refrain from any upgrade in
the current outlook level at this time.  

The convection will continue into the overnight hours, crossing the
Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states. 
However, diminishing instability should result in a similar, gradual
decline in overall severe potential overnight.  Still, locally
damaging gusts and a tornado or two will likely remain possible
overnight.

..Goss.. 01/03/2025

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