SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks. No severe weather is expected. ...Central Plains to Arkansas... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period. Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor, immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable risk for large hail. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025