SPC Jan 4, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Fri Jan 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible early Sunday morning across
parts of the southern and central Plains eastward across the Ozarks.
No severe weather is expected.

...Central Plains to Arkansas...

Strong short-wave trough is forecast to advance across the Great
Basin early in the period, then into the central/southern High
Plains by 05/12z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of
the trough into western OK. This will induce lee cyclogenesis over
northeast NM which will track into north-central OK by the end of
the period. In response to the strong short wave, LLJ will increase
markedly across TX/OK, and a corridor of focused low-level warm
advection should encourage elevated convection from portions of
central KS, arcing into AR during the latter part of the period.
Latest model guidance suggests air mass modification will be
inadequate for surface-based convection as boundary-layer dew points
will struggle to rise into the 50s along a narrow corridor,
immediately ahead of the surface cyclone into central OK. More
meaningful surface-based buoyancy is not expected until later in the
day2 period downstream. For the day1, forecast soundings do not
exhibit sufficient elevated instability to warrant any appreciable
risk for large hail.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/04/2025

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