SPC Jan 4, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur late tonight into early Sunday
morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to the
Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight...
In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying
air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast.  This
moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a
midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High
Plains.  Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a
strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime,
especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern
MO tonight.  Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after
06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS
into west central MO.  

Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern
LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface
moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX.

..Thompson/Weinman.. 01/04/2025

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