SPC Jan 4, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...AND INTO
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and
evening from the Sabine River Valley into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Severe wind gusts,
tornadoes and hail will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level closed low -- initially over the western Kansas vicinity
-- is progged to advance steadily eastward Sunday, reaching the
Mid-Mississippi Valley area by early Monday.  Strong/cyclonic flow
aloft surrounding this system will shift into/across the Middle and
Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.

At the surface, a gradually strengthening surface low will shift
from the central/eastern Oklahoma vicinity Sunday morning, to the
Memphis vicinity during the early evening, and eastward into eastern
Tennessee overnight.  Ahead of the low, a warm front will shift
northward into the Tennessee Valley with time, while a cold front
sweeps eastward out of eastern Texas through the afternoon, into the
Delta region through early evening, and across the central Gulf
Coast states through the end of the period.

...East Texas eastward to Mississippi...
As a surface low shifts eastward out of Oklahoma and into Arkansas
during the day, southerly low-level warm-sector flow -- and
associated warm/moist advection -- will contribute to gradual/weak
destabilization ahead of the advancing cold front.  By early
afternoon, thunderstorms are forecast to develop near -- and perhaps
just ahead of -- the cold front, from central Arkansas
south-southwestward into southeastern Texas, as the airmass modestly
destabilizes.  

Very strong shear (flow veering and strengthening with height) will
support storm organization, with the strongest storms likely
acquiring rotation -- both within the organizing band of storms, as
well as with any cellular, warm-advection-driven convection evolving
ahead of the front.  Damaging wind gusts are expected, along with a
few tornadoes, with risk likely maximized from northern and central
Louisiana eastward across the Delta region to western Mississippi
from mid afternoon through mid evening.

The convection will continue into the overnight hours, as the cold
front shifts across central Gulf Coast states. 
Diminishing instability suggests a gradual decline in overall severe
potential overnight.  Still, locally damaging gusts and a tornado or
two will likely remain possible well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 01/04/2025

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