SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida into southern and eastern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward, moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the period (Tuesday morning). Meanwhile at the surface, an associated cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of Florida 12Z Tuesday. ...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida... Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the cold front at the start of the period, from the southern Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico. Meager instability is forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest limited storm organization/intensity. Still, with a favorably sheared environment across the region, a few stronger storms/segments are expected. This suggests low-probability potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado. As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern Georgia/northern Florida vicinity. ..Goss.. 01/04/2025