SPC Jan 4, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Local severe risk will be possible on Monday from northern Florida
into southern and eastern Georgia.

...Synopsis...
A weakening mid-level low, expected to reside near the
Mid-Mississippi Valley early Monday, will shift quickly eastward,
moving off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through latter stages of the
period (Tuesday morning).  Meanwhile at the surface, an associated
cold front is forecast to sweep across the Southeast, clearing the
coastal Carolinas/Georgia by sunset, and then moving south/east of
Florida 12Z Tuesday.

...Parts of southern Georgia and northern Florida...
Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along the
cold front at the start of the period, from the southern
Appalachians vicinity south-southwestward across the Florida
Panhandle and into the Gulf of Mexico.  Meager instability is
forecast ahead of the front, and with stronger large-scale forcing
for ascent well to the north of the region, these factors suggest
limited storm organization/intensity.  Still, with a favorably
sheared environment across the region, a few stronger
storms/segments are expected.  This suggests low-probability
potential for a couple of stronger gusts -- or even a brief tornado.
 As such, will maintain MRGL/5% risk across the southern
Georgia/northern Florida vicinity.

..Goss.. 01/04/2025

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