SPC Jan 4, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CST Sat Jan 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible late tonight into early
Sunday morning from parts of the southern/central Plains eastward to
the Mid-South. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...20Z Update...
A pronounced mid-level trough continues to amplify while traversing
the Inter-mountain West, supporting a gradual increase in the
strength of a low-level jet, which is currently positioned over the
Plains states. Objective analysis shows richer low-level moisture
over TX, which is poised to reach the central Plains/MS Valley
regions later tonight into early Sunday morning. As such, the
previous forecast (see below) remains on track, as elevated
thunderstorms should initiate within a low-level warm-air/moisture
advection regime.

..Squitieri.. 01/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Sat Jan 04 2025/

...KS to the Ozarks/Mid-South overnight...
In response to southern High Plains lee cyclogenesis, a modifying
air mass (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s) is returning
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to the TX coast.  This
moisture will continue spreading northward through tonight as a
midlevel shortwave trough over UT progresses eastward to the High
Plains.  Low-midlevel ascent will gradually increase within a
strengthening and increasingly moist warm advection regime,
especially in the corridor from southern KS to northern AR/southern
MO tonight.  Elevated thunderstorms will become more probable after
06z, and freezing rain/sleet with thunder will be possible from KS
into west central MO.  

Farther south, isolated thunderstorms may also spread into southern
LA prior to 12z, along the north edge of richer near-surface
moisture, and east of the more prominent midlevel cap over TX.

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