SPC Jan 5, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially
severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance
quickly eastward across the central and southern Appalachians
Monday, and then off the Mid-Atlantic Coast Monday night.  South of
this trough, fast westerly flow will prevail across the Gulf Coast
region.

An attendant surface low will depart the southern Appalachians and
cross the Carolinas through the day, moving offshore by early
evening.  A trailing cold front will advance across Georgia and the
Carolinas through the afternoon, and then southward across the
Florida Peninsula overnight.

...Northern and western Florida into southern Georgia...
Frontal convection -- including a couple of embedded thunderstorms
-- will be ongoing from the western Carolinas southwestward to the
Florida Panhandle and adjacent northern Gulf of Mexico at the start
of the period, with steady eastward progression to occur through the
day.  The strongest forcing for ascent/mass response will exist from
the Carolinas northward, where a lack of surface-based instability
is anticipated.  Farther south, meager surface-based instability
(aided by the presence of low 60s dewpoints ahead of the front) and
weak convergence along the front suggests generally sub-severe
convection.  However, with a wind field in place that would
otherwise support organized storms, low-probability potential for a
few briefly more-organized storms remains evident.  As such, will
maintain low-probability/MRGL risk area for the first half of the
period.

..Goss.. 01/05/2025

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