SPC MD 10

MD 0010 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN…CENTRAL/EASTERN KY…FAR SOUTHWEST WV…AND FAR WESTERN VA

Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...central/eastern KY...far
southwest WV...and far western VA

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

Valid 051658Z - 052130Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow, with 1-1.5 in/hr rates, will
gradually transition to sleet and freezing rain through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar data depicts an expansive swath of
moderate to heavy snow shifting/expanding north-northeastward across
the OH River Valley this afternoon -- generally focused within the
warm-advection wing of a deepening low-level cyclone shifting
eastward over the Ozarks. The 12Z ILN sounding showed a cold air
mass entrenched across the region, with an antecedent layer of dry
air from the surface to near 700 mb. While this dry layer will limit
precipitation intensity/rates with northward extent in the
near-term, forecast soundings show moistening from south to north --
aided by strengthening frontogenetic forcing for ascent. As a
result, areas of heavy snow with 1-1.5 in/hr rates are expected
through at least 19Z. 

At that time, the low-level warm advection plume -- evident in
regional VWP data over TN -- will expand northward and strengthen
across KY. The associated warm nose will support a gradual
south-to-north transition from moderate/heavy snow to sleet and
eventually freezing rain. The strong/focused ascent and deep
cold/saturated air mass will continue to favor moderate to heavy
mixed precipitation rates.

..Weinman.. 01/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON   37878624 38248672 38728646 38958571 38878465 37928196
            37328149 36848192 36788359 36938433 37188479 37878624 

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