SPC MD 12

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI


Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern Louisiana into Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 051909Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase through the
afternoon across eastern Louisiana into Mississippi. Damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible into this evening.

DISCUSSION...The warm sector is continuing to expand north and east
across the Lower Mississippi Valley early this afternoon. Mid-60s F
surface dewpoints are now evident across southwest MS, and as far
north as far southwest AR, with cloud breaks evident in visible
satellite imagery. Some continued moistening is expected with north
and east extent into late afternoon/evening ahead of the
eastward-advancing cold front. 

The VWP at KDGX shows increasing low to midlevel flow overspreading
the region with the arrival of better low-level moisture. Enlarged,
looping low-level hodographs amid 0-1 km SRH greater than 200 m2/s2
suggest rotating storms (both with discrete convection and embedded
within the QLCS) will pose a risk for tornadoes and damaging gusts.
Of particular interest, an area from northeast LA into southwest and
west-central MS shows overlaps between backed low-level flow, cloud
breaks/stronger heating, mid-60s F dewpoints and stronger 2-hr
pressure falls. This area could become a corridor of enhanced
severe/tornado potential later this afternoon/early evening. 

While the northward extent of this potential is a bit uncertain and
conditional on the northward progression of the warm sector, at
least some severe potential is expected to extend into portions of
northern MS. A tornado watch will likely be issued in the next hour
or so for portions of the MCD area.

..Leitman/Smith.. 01/05/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32459182 34209111 34399091 34439038 34368987 34048925
            33578910 32688929 31408996 30659080 30369148 30359221
            30479264 31089237 32459182

StormPrep