SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Sun Jan 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms -- a couple of which may be strong to potentially severe -- will be possible across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... Strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate across Alabama to the NC Coast by 07/00z. As a result, westerly flow is forecast to deepen across the Southeast/FL Peninsula through the period. Latest model guidance suggests a sharp cold front will advance into the FL Panhandle-western GA by the start of the period. Strongest buoyancy will likely be noted along the FL Gulf Coast, in proximity to warmer Gulf waters. Currently, at 05z, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced into the northern Gulf Basin, roughly 50mi south of MOB. This air mass should spread inland early in the period. Forecast sounding for PFN exhibits SBCAPE on the order of 900 J/kg with very strong surface-6km shear, and 0-3SRH. Current thinking is the greatest risk for supercells may be early in the period, along the FL Gulf Coast. With strongest large-scale forcing expected to spread well north of the region across the Mid-Atlantic, convection should remain isolated. Any risk for robust thunderstorms will be concentrated along the boundary as it surges across extreme southern GA and northern FL. Gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado, are the primary concern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/06/2025