SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night. ...TX... An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night. ..Grams.. 01/06/2025