SPC Jan 6, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Very isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Trans-Pecos to central Texas on Wednesday night.

...TX...
An initially closed mid/upper low should gradually evolve back into
an open, positive-tilt trough by early Thursday as it slowly slides
across the southern Gulf of CA and northwest Mexico. Warm-moist
advection at 700 mb should yield scant buoyancy with mixed-phase
states in elevated parcels amid steep mid-level lapse rates. Most of
this may be atop a sub-freezing surface layer, yielding scattered
elevated convection producing mixed precip. While most guidance
indicates thunder potential is minimal, the synoptic pattern in
conjunction with 12Z NAM soundings suggest thunder probabilities are
around 10 percent. This appears to be centered from the Trans-Pecos
across the Edwards Plateau to central TX on Wednesday night.

..Grams.. 01/06/2025

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