SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Jan 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, one or two of which may be strong to potentially severe, will be possible across parts of western Florida through the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening. ...20z Update... Afternoon visible imagery shows the cold front has gradually moved east/southeast through the remainder of south GA and the FL Panhandle. Behind the front, the intruding arctic air mass will scour remaining instability and moisture, ending the thunderstorm risk across much of the Southeast. The Thunder and Marginal Risk areas have been removed behind the front. Across the remainder of the western FL Peninsula, weak inland advection of mid 60s F surface dewpoints and filtered solar heating are supporting modest buoyancy (~ 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) despite poor mid-level lapse rates of 6 C/km. Shallow convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico may move inland and pose some risk for an occasional damaging gust or brief tornado, given moderate mid and low-level shear. However, confidence in sustained strong to severe storms is low, as large-scale forcing is expected to weaken and scant buoyancy will confined near the coast. Will maintain the low-end risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado into the early evening. The severe risk should rapidly end later tonight as the cold front moves inland. ..Lyons.. 01/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Mon Jan 06 2025/ ...GA/FL vicinity... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the OH Valley embedded within larger-scale troughing over the East. A 100-kt 500 mb speed max over AL will quickly move east of the Carolina coast by early evening with strong westerly flow over FL. In the low levels, a cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the Big Bend of FL through the early afternoon. Low-level moistening and diurnal heating ahead of the front will contribute to scant buoyancy, despite initially poor lapse rates over the region per 12z raob data. A couple of stronger updrafts or small banded segments of convection may yield a localized risk for a damaging gust or two this afternoon. The enlarged hodographs in the lowest 1-2 km and moistening boundary layer could facilitate weak rotation in the strongest cells. Only isolated to widely scattered convective coverage (mostly not yielding lightning flashes) is expected and this activity will push east/southeast during the day. Model guidance shows convection associated with the front moving through the Tampa Bay area late this afternoon into the early evening, with perhaps a lingering strong-storm risk before nocturnal stabilization and frontal passage.