SPC Jan 7, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop from Thursday into Thursday night
from parts of central Texas to the Texas Coastal Plain and into far
southwest Louisiana, but no severe threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a positively tilted trough will move through the
central and southwestern U.S. on Thursday, as southwest flow remains
over much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. Ahead of the
system across parts of the southern Plains, warm advection will take
place in the mid-levels, with a very cold airmass at the lower
levels. Forecast soundings Thursday morning suggest that MUCAPE
could be in the 100 to 200 J/kg range in parts of Texas from the
Hill Country to the Coastal Plain. This could be enough for isolated
thunderstorm development. During the afternoon and evening, the
chance for storms could increase some as a low to mid-level jet
strengthens. The greatest chance for storms could be along the
middle Texas coast overnight where a moist airmass is forecast to
impinge upon the coast. Instability is expected to be too limited
for a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 01/07/2025

Read more