SPC Jan 7, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Tue Jan 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
western Gulf Coast States on Thursday into Thursday night.

...TX/LA...
A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with the closed
mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave trough
from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday night.
Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will yield increasingly
widespread precipitation across the south-central states on Thursday
as a weak surface cyclone becomes established off the western Gulf
Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, thunder potential
appears slim. Very isolated thunder from parcels rooted near 700 mb
may linger Thursday morning in the central TX vicinity. Thereafter,
scant elevated buoyancy should become confined to the coastal plain,
initially across Deep South TX and then shifting north-northeast
through the rest of the period. Relatively warm upper-level
temperatures in conjunction with weakening mid-level lapse rates may
preclude charge separation inland. Some thunder potential is
expected near the coast, with greater coverage over the adjacent
offshore waters.

..Grams.. 01/07/2025

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