SPC Jan 8, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through Thursday night.

...TX/LA...
A northern-stream shortwave impulse should phase with an initially
closed mid/upper low in the Gulf of CA vicinity, yielding a longwave
trough from south-central Canada to northwest Mexico by Thursday
night. Downstream low-level warm-moist advection will foster
increasingly widespread precipitation across the South-Central
States on Thursday as a surface cyclone becomes established off the
western Gulf Coast. Despite ample precipitation coverage, overall
thunder potential appears low. 

Very isolated, elevated thunder will be possible over a broad
portion of central to east TX, mainly during the morning and
afternoon. Elevated buoyancy should be scant at most, and
mid/upper-level temperatures will gradually warm, weakening lapse
rates later in the period. Primary convective potential will be
focused over the northwest Gulf where 12Z HREF members are
consistent with an offshore QLCS forming Thursday evening and
broadening Thursday night. The northern extent of this may skim
parts of coastal LA as the surface cyclone approaches overnight.
Forecast soundings suggest this convection should remain shallow
over land, with minimal chance for charge separation despite the
potential intrusion of low 60s surface dew points. But given fast
low to mid-level wind fields, strong surface gusts might accompany
the convective line.

..Grams.. 01/08/2025

Read more