Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but very isolated thunderstorms are possible late tonight across parts of west Texas. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smtih.. 01/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Jan 08 2025/ ...Discussion... A deep midlevel cyclone will move east-southeastward across northwest Mexico through the period. Modest midlevel height falls preceding this feature, combined with weak warm advection, will support an increase in precipitation across portions of west TX during the overnight and morning hours. Gradual low/midlevel moistening amid steep midlevel lapse rates (see 12Z observed DRT sounding) will yield weak elevated buoyancy atop a sub-freezing boundary layer. As a result, embedded convective elements will be capable of isolated lightning flashes.
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