SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/ ...Discussion... A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation overspreading the region.