SPC Jan 9, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CST Thu Jan 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. The band
of moderate low-level warm air advection is forecast to continue
eastward across central TX this afternoon. Occasional lightning
flashes will remain possible with the deeper convective structures
within this band across east-central TX and into southern LA
tonight. The Thunder area over central TX was trimmed slightly on
the western edge as the strongest ascent has moved eastward. See the
discussion for additional information.

..Lyons.. 01/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Jan 09 2025/

...Discussion...
A highly amplified large-scale trough will move gradually eastward
across the southern Rockies/Plains and northwest Mexico through the
period, while several embedded shortwave impulses overspread the
southern Plains. A related plume of strengthening warm advection
will shift eastward across south/central and east TX and eventually
into the central Gulf Coast states. While the surface-based warm
sector will remain offshore, steep midlevel lapse rates (and weak
elevated buoyancy) atop a stable boundary layer will support very
isolated lightning flashes embedded in a swath of precipitation
overspreading the region.

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