SPC Jan 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Strong surface high pressure and a dry/stable airmass will envelop
much of the CONUS through Day 6/Thu. By the end of the period around
Day 7-8/Fri-Sat, medium range guidance indicates a shortwave upper
trough may move across the southern Plains and Southeast. As this
occurs, a deepening surface cyclone will develop over the southern
Plains and shift east. Strengthening southerly low-level flow ahead
of the surface low will allow for Gulf moisture to return northward
across portions of south/east Texas into the Gulf coast states. Some
severe thunderstorm potential could accompany this system at the end
of the forecast period. However, uncertainty and spread in forecast
guidance with regards to timing/track of the surface low, and
moisture return across the Gulf coast region, precludes severe
probabilities at this time.

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