SPC Jan 16, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough digging southeastward out of western Canada
across the north-central U.S. will partially phase with a second
trough moving out of the Desert Southwest across the southern
Plains, resulting in evolution of large-scale troughing across the
CONUS. By Saturday morning, highly amplified cyclonic flow is
forecast to encompass nearly the entirety of North America.

At the surface, a deep cyclone associated with the upper troughing,
initially over western Ontario, is forecast to occlude as it rotates
northeastward across the James Bay area.  A trailing cold front will
sweep across the Plains/Upper Great Lakes/Midwest, and should reach
a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Lower
Mississippi Valley by 18/12Z (Saturday morning).

...Lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area...
As a cold front advances southeastward toward, and eventually into,
the lower Mississippi Valley area, low-level warm advection atop a
still cool/stable warm-sector boundary layer will lead to
development of elevated convection, mainly during the second half of
the period.  As convection evolves, and low-level theta-e advection
supports continued/modest elevated destabilization, a few
thunderstorms will likely develop.

While strengthening flow aloft during the period will result in
shear that would otherwise support organized storms, the combination
of a boundary layer not conducive for surface-based storms, and weak
instability aloft, suggests that severe threat should remain no more
than minimal at best across this region.

..Goss.. 01/16/2025

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