SPC Jan 17, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Thu Jan 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and central Gulf Coast region Friday night into
early Saturday morning.

...Discussion...

500mb low is currently located along the CA/Baja Peninsula border,
shearing east in line with latest model guidance. Associated
mid-level speed max is forecast to translate across northern Mexico,
early in the period, before advancing into the lower MS Valley by
18/06z. As this feature approaches the lower MS Valley, synoptic
boundary draped across the central Gulf will begin to advance north,
and a wedge of modified Gulf boundary-layer air mass will approach
the northern Gulf Coast during the latter half of the period. While
lower 60s surface dew points will struggle to move appreciably
inland, forecast soundings exhibit modest mid-level buoyancy as
lapse rates steepen, especially north of the jet. Latest guidance
suggests parcels lifted near 1km may yield 500 J/kg MUCAPE after
midnight, and this should be more than adequate for the most robust
updrafts to penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Near-surface
based convection will be limited to primarily offshore locations,
thus the severe potential appears negligible this period.

..Darrow/Halbert.. 01/17/2025

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