SPC Jan 17, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from eastern Oklahoma into the
Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast region
this afternoon into early Saturday morning.

...Synopsis...
Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving
through the southern High Plains, with another shortwave visible
farther southwest in the vicinity of the northern Baja Peninsula. An
extensive fetch of westerly/southwesterly flow aloft exists 
throughout the bases of these waves, extending from the Baja
Peninsula into the southern Plains. The northern shortwave is
forecast to continue eastward across OK/north TX throughout the day.
As it does, the flow aloft will strengthen to 90-110 kt over TX
before spreading eastward/northeastward into the Lower MS Valley
this evening and overnight.

Recent surface analysis reveals a developing low near the KS/CO/OK
border intersection, along the southern periphery of the surface
troughing that extends across the central Plains. This low is
expected to solidify over the next several hours as it moves along
the Red River, with its adjacent warm sector shifting eastward as
well.

...Eastern OK into AR...
Persistent warm-air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave
trough and attendant surface low may result in enough mid-level
moistening to support a few elevated thunderstorms during the
afternoon/early evening. Given the weak instability (i.e. MUCAPE
less than 250 J/kg) and elevated nature of any convection that can
form, severe storms are not expected.

...MS/AL...
Strengthening warm-air advection is anticipated this evening and
overnight across the Southeast as shortwave trough continues
eastward and the strong jet max mentioned into the synopsis spreads
into the region. This should promote an increase in buoyancy, with a
resulting increase in thunderstorm coverage. Even so, low-level
stability is expected to persist, with all of the buoyancy above
900-850mb. Strong vertical shear could result in a few more
organized updrafts capable of producing small hail. However, 
elevated character to the thunderstorms and generally modest
buoyancy (i.e. MUCAPE at and below 500 J/kg) should limit the
overall severe potential.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 01/17/2025

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