SPC Jan 18, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Sat Jan 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL FL...

...SUMMARY...
A tornado and isolated damaging winds will be possible across
central Florida through Sunday afternoon.

...Central FL...
Within a longwave upper trough over much of the CONUS, an intense
mid-level jet streak will move across parts of the Southeast and off
the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Monday. Primary surface cyclone will
deepen as it advances off the Carolina Coastal Plain by Sunday
afternoon. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward and move
south across the FL Peninsula through the period. 

Relatively rich low-level moisture ahead of the front will yield a
plume of upper 60s surface dew points, coinciding with temperatures
warming into the 70s during the day. Buoyancy will remain weak,
MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg, as mid-level lapse rates remain subdued and
poorer with southern extent across the peninsula. Nearly
unidirectional southwesterly wind profiles with pronounced speed
shear will yield moderate low-level hodograph curvature and
elongated/straight mid/upper hodographs. This should result in
potential for a couple supercells during the morning into the
afternoon, despite the wind profile largely paralleling the surface
front. With large-scale ascent weakening through the day, convective
coverage should peak at isolated to scattered around midday before
waning into late afternoon. Overall setup appears supportive of a
low-probability threat for a tornado and locally strong gusts.

..Grams.. 01/18/2025

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