SPC Jan 19, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of central Florida this
morning into this afternoon, and pose at least some risk for a
tornado and locally damaging wind gusts.

...FL Peninsula...
Expansive upper troughing covers the entirety of the CONUS this
morning, with moderate southwesterly flow aloft throughout the base
of this trough extending from the Southeast/Gulf of Mexico across
the Mid-Atlantic States and FL. Surface analysis places a low over
central NC. A cold front extends southwestward from this low through
southeast GA and the FL Big Bend. Modest troughing precedes this
front across central FL, with broad low-level confluence in the
vicinity of this pre-frontal troughing contributing to showers and
thunderstorms. Modest buoyancy persists over the region, with
mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE around 500 to 750 J/kg.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
day as the cold front and pre-frontal troughing both shift gradually
southward. The environment will remain strongly sheared (i.e.
effective bulk shear around 50-55 kt) throughout the afternoon,
supporting the potential for a few more organized storms capable of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a brief tornado or two. Wind
fields will weaken with southern extent, with deep-layer vertical
shear weakening as well. As such, the severe potential will likely
maximize this morning into the early afternoon across the central FL
Peninsula.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 01/19/2025

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