SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Jan 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday or Monday night. ...Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential is negligible across the CONUS on Monday through Monday night. One exception could be from the Middle TX to southwest LA Gulf Coast where weak elevated convection should develop early morning Tuesday. This will occur with strengthening warm-moist advection centered on 750-700 mb, downstream of a positive-tilt mid/upper-level longwave trough. Some CAM/non-CAM 12Z forecast soundings, most aggressively from the NAM, depict scant elevated buoyancy developing amid a plume of initially steep mid-level lapse rates. With thermodynamic profiles suggestive of a predominant PTYPE of sleet at the surface, these potentially mixed-phase elevated parcels could support a few lightning flashes. While thunderstorm probabilities may be nonzero, they appear to be less than 10 percent at this time. ..Grams.. 01/19/2025