SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight. ...Synopsis... Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS, reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms anticipated. Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500 mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Mosier.. 01/20/2025