SPC Jan 20, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are expected across the U.S. through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Another surge of cold air is anticipated across the CONUS,
reinforcing the polar airmass already in place. This will result in
a maintenance of dry and stable conditions, with no thunderstorms
anticipated. 

Some deeper convection is possible late tonight/early tomorrow along
the middle/upper TX Coast as warm-air advection strengthens
throughout the warm sector of surface low developing over the
western Gulf of Mexico. Model forecast soundings have thermodynamic
profiles with scant (and shallow) buoyancy between around 800 to 500
mb. These profiles also suggest sleet will be the predominant
precipitation type, with mixed-phase parcels combining with the
modest buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. Even so, the
overall thunderstorm probabilities are still expected to be less
than 10 percent.

..Mosier.. 01/20/2025

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