SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... Thunder potential will be nil across much of the CONUS during the D2 period. Deep convection will be relegated to the Gulf, initially over the west-central portion before spreading towards the southeast part late. The slimmest of elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE below 100 J/kg) along the Upper TX to LA Gulf Coast may coincide with mixed-phase parcels, supporting weak convection into late morning. A few lightning flashes are possible along the immediate coast, but the overall thunder probability appears to be less than 10 percent. As deep convection progresses east across the Gulf, it is expected to wane with approach to southwest FL and the Keys early Wednesday morning. This decaying phase should occur in response poor mid-level lapse rates downstream of a positive-tilt trough and subsiding large-scale ascent. ..Grams.. 01/20/2025