SPC MD 49

MD 0049 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHERN LEWIS COUNTIES DOWNSTREAM OF LAKE ONTARIO

Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025

Areas affected...Southern Jefferson and northern Lewis counties
downstream of Lake Ontario

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 211628Z - 212230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy lake-effect snow to continue downstream of Lake
Ontario to continue for another 10 to 12 hours. Snowfall rates of 2+
inches per hour expected.

DISCUSSION...A strong lake-effect snow band which developed
yesterday evening and slowly shifted north has now stalled over the
same location since around 10Z this morning with snowfall rates in
excess of 2 inches per hour. Forecast soundings show a similar wind
direction and EL depth which should support similar intensity
through at least 00Z. After this time, winds become more erratic and
the depth of the convective layer will become more shallow which
will likely result in a weaker, more erratic snow band. However,
until that time, 2+ inch per hour snowfall rates are expected to
persist through the afternoon and into the early evening across the
same area across southern Jefferson and northern Lewis counties.

..Bentley.. 01/21/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...

LAT...LON   43947628 44037579 44007543 43897536 43767560 43717592
            43697613 43707625 43847635 43947628 

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