Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... A large upper trough will remain over eastern Canada for much of the Day 4-8 period, with the southern extent of the colder air aloft affecting the area from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Detached from this feature will be a lower-latitude upper low which is forecast to drop south across CA on Sunday/D4, and pivot east into AZ through Monday/D5. For the following days through Thursday/D8, this low will gradually shift east toward the southern Plains. However, predictability is low for such a slow-moving feature cut off from the primary storm track to the north. Given this pattern, little in the way of a focus will be present for any severe weather potential until perhaps very late in the period, Thursday/D8 or beyond. Prior to the southwest-US upper low moving into the Plains, a general east-west oriented boundary will exist along the Gulf Coast states, with modest low-level warm advection resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily over parts of Texas.